A congressional special election in Tennessee has become the latest battleground for Democrats and Republicans seeking to craft a winning message ahead of the 2026 midterms.
Historically, Tennessee's 7th Congressional District is a fairly conservative district that gave President Trump roughly 60% of the vote last November. Former Rep. Mark Green, who resigned in July, won by a similar margin.
But in more recent history, Democrats have overperformed their 2024 margins in special elections this year by an average of 13% and are coming off a string of high-profile victories in races up and down the ballot last month.
That dynamic means the race between Republican former state Department of General Services Commissioner Matt Van Epps and Democratic state Rep. Aftyn Behn has captured national attention in the closing weeks of the campaign.
In final stretch, outside money floods race
According to the latest Federal Election Commission data, outside groups have spent more than $6.5 million on the race, including more than $1.6 million from the pro-Trump MAGA Inc. super PAC. Two-thirds of the total super PAC spending has come in the last two weeks of the race as early voting picked up in earnest.
Scant public polling of a typically lower-turnout special election coupled with a less reliable sense of who will make up the electorate has also added pressure on both parties to squeeze out every vote in what could be a tight race.
An Emerson College poll released last week found Van Epps slightly ahead of Behn but within the margin of error among voters surveyed. Surveys released in October from Democratic-aligned firms showed Van Epps with an 8-point advantage, roughly in line with the average Democratic special election overperformance this year.
Campaigns focus on cost of living
The closing sprint of the race has seen a slew of surrogates make campaign stops and virtual appearances to support the candidates. Former Vice President Kamala Harris and Democratic National Committee Chairman Ken Martin attended canvassing events for Behn last month, while former Vice President Al Gore and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez headlined a Zoom rally Monday evening.
House Speaker Mike Johnson held a get-out-the-vote rally Monday morning for Van Epps that featured Trump calling on speakerphone to proclaim that the "whole world is watching Tennessee right now."
Both parties are making affordability a top issue in the race, especially on the airways. Van Epps has embraced Trump's endorsement while also focusing his closing message on the economy.
In one ad, Van Epps decried "career politicians" and promised to "bring down prices, create good paying jobs, and lower health care costs for working families."
Behn's closing ad promised that she would "shake up Washington" by "making health care more affordable, bringing down the cost of living, and protect workers and small businesses from job-killing tariffs."
During a Monday evening telephone rally for Van Epps, Trump dismissed affordability as something Democrats mentioned to distract from what he said are his administration's numerous accomplishments.
"They like to talk about affordability," Trump said in the Monday evening tele-rally for Van Epps. "To them it's just a con job, it's just a word."
Copyright 2025 NPR
